Emarian

What we heard: Back in March, Take-Two Interactive's board was ousted by a shareholder revolt. Since then, it has been unclear what the company's new directors have in mind for the mighty--but mighty troubled--publisher. The first hard evidence about what tack Take-Two will take won't surface for 10 days. That's when the New York-based publisher will announce earnings for its second fiscal quarter, which ended on April 30.

In the interim, analysts are prognosticating about the possible outcomes of said call. One of the highest-profile game industry analysts is making some particularly gloomy predictions. In a note sent out this morning, Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter said he thought "the company is likely to announce studio closures, lease terminations, and game cancellations during the conference call." He and his associates also "do not expect new games such as The BIGS, All-Pro Football, Fantastic Four, or The Darkness to be wildly profitable."

Pachter also set off a forum firestorm by wagering a guess about one of the year's biggest games. "We believe that it is possible that the company will choose to 'throw in the towel' on [its 2007 financial year] by shifting the release date for Grand Theft Auto IV by a few weeks, increasing the losses incurred this year and improving the company's prospects for FY:08." Take-Two's financial year ends on October 31, 2007.

Pachter gave another rationale for a GTA IV delay: namely, that moving it to early November would put more space between GTA IV and Halo 3, which is arriving September 25. "We believe that a two-week delay would provide a reasonable gap between the launch of Halo 3 and the launch of GTA IV, and would actually help sales of both games," he said.

Still another scenario in the Wedbush note would have the regular edition of GTA IV be pushed past Halloween, while the recently announced Collector's Edition of the game would go on sale October 16. That would "allow Take-Two to maximize revenues from the $89.99 Collector's Edition of the game...and to increase overall profitability." The extra $30 nets players a soundtrack CD, art book, duffel bag, keychain, and lockbox.

Bogus or not bogus?: Bogus that it's been confirmed in any shape, way, or form. Though well respected, Pachter is not infallible, and he is merely speculating here. Then again, stranger and more underhanded things have been done in the name of financial posturing. Also, giving gamers a few more weeks to save their pennies post-Halo 3 does make sense. But the November release schedule will still be crowded with competition, and GTA IV will be a monster hit no matter what...so why wait?

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